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EIA says US to become largest non-OPEC oil producer for next 20 years

04 November 2014

The US shale oil and gas boom will strip Russia of its status as the biggest non-OPEC oil producing state, according to an US Energy Information Agency (EIA) report published in October. US oil and gas production is seen going from 9.8 million barrels a day in 2011 to 14.2 million per day in 2020, when Russia will be producing an average of 10.7 million barrels and Saudi Arabia 10.6 million.

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The figures include natural gas liquids, condensates and crude.

The agency expects Russia’s oil production to rise by an average of 0.6% year over year between now and 2040, while US oil production grow at around 1% per year.  The EIA has American oil and gas production peaking in 2020, but its inevitable decline will still outpace Russian production.  By 2030, it says, the US is expected to average 13.2 million barrels daily while Russia will be pumping out 11.2 million.

New horizontal drilling technologies have helped make the United States a hydrocarbon colossus, but OPEC will still command 40% of the global oil supply in 2020, down from around 41% today and that market share will rise again as US production declines. 

Global oil demand will expand by 14 million barrels to average 101 million a day in 2035, according to the IEA report. The share of conventional crude will drop to 65 million barrels by the end of the period because of growth in unconventional supplies, the IEA said without providing current data

The concentration in global oil trade will continue to shift to the Asia-Pacific region from the Atlantic Basin, as China is on the verge of becoming the world’s biggest oil importer, the report showed. India will displace China as the biggest driver of energy demand growth after 2020, the IEA said.

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