CNPC releases 2021 edition of ‘World and China Energy Outlook’ report
10 January 2022
On December 26, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) released the 2021 edition of World and China Energy Outlook report in Beijing. This is the sixth consecutive year that CNPC has released a medium and long-term outlook report about energy. For the first time, the report focuses on the goal of "carbon neutrality" in 2060 and discusses the trend and path of clean and low-carbon energy transformation in China and the world.
Global cooperation is key to carbon neutrality
The report says that the world’s population will grow steadily in the future, reaching over 10 billion by 2060, and the world economy will reach $237 trillion in 2060, with an average annual growth rate of 2.6% from 2015 to 2060.
On this basis, the world's primary energy demand will reach 16.8 billion to 19.1 billion tons of standard oil in 2060, with an average annual growth rate of 0.5% to 0.8% from 2015 to 2060. The energy consumption intensity will continue to decline, falling to 0.71 to 0.78 tons of standard oil per $10,000 in 2060. In the context of cooperative carbon reduction, the utilisation of clean energy will continue to expand. In 2060, the proportion of natural gas and non-fossil energy will reach 88%.
The report also specifically mentions the importance of electrification as an option for low-carbon or zero carbon in the terminal sector. Under cooperative carbon reduction, the electrification rate of the terminal sector will reach 62% in 2060, showing an increase of 44% over 2015. Technologies such as hydrogen, biofuels, geothermal energy, and CCUS, are important solutions to the difficulties in carbon reduction.
In the context of the carbon reduction, world oil demand will peak in 2025 and then decline slowly to 1.62 billion tons in 2060. Chemical oil will peak around 2030, then the demand will remain stable, rising to 63.6% in 2060. The oil demand in Africa will continue to grow until 2040, making Africa the latest region to peak, and its share of world oil demand will continue to increase, reaching 12% by 2060, which means an increase of 7.4 percentage points over 2015.
In the future, oil and gas development will concentrate in low-cost resource enrichment. The Asia-Pacific region, as a net import region for oil and natural gas, will rely on imports for supply security over a long period of time.
The goal of "carbon neutrality" requires significant investment in energy infrastructure
Energy Outlook indicates that China's oil and gas exploration will concentrate on the potential of old oilfields and improve the recovery rate in the future, highlighting deep, ultra-deep, and unconventional resources. China's crude oil production will reach 200 million tons by 2035; natural gas production will grow rapidly and will be expected to exceed 250 billion cubic meters in 2030, 350 billion cubic meters in 2060.
Energy Outlook also indicates that investment in the electric power sector will be 1 to 2 trillion yuan per year and will increase year on year. The fuel expenditure of society will peak by 2030, for about 9.4 trillion yuan (£1.08t) per year, and then with the change of energy consumption scale and unit energy cost, it will stabilize at around 8.5 trillion (£982b) to 9 trillion yuan a year.
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